L2 | S3 | W26: Southend surge to within four as the D1 title race refuses to be settled

📰 Week 26 in Review – Season 3

Four games left and this season is refusing to finish quietly. Division 1 is alive in a way that felt unlikely just a few weeks ago – Rapid Vienna’s lead has quietly shrunk and the chasing pack have arrived in numbers. Division 2 delivered its own narrative closure at the top, even as the relegation picture darkens at the other end. In Division 3, Charlton Athletic are making serious noise, while Division 4 continues to serve up surprises from top to bottom. And Nottingham Forest – still sitting 14th in the fourth tier – are somehow through to both cup finals. The story of the season. Possibly of several seasons.

🏆 Division 1 – Four Games, Five Clubs, No Certainties

A week ago Rapid Vienna led by six. Heading into Week 27, that lead is four – and the clubs chasing them are beginning to believe. Paul Lamming’s side beat Sporting Lisbon 1-0, Zappa with the only goal four minutes in. It was the right result, and it kept Vienna top. But Southend United’s 2-1 win at Marseille – Andrade on three and Larsen on 74 – lifted them above Atletico Madrid into second and closed the gap to four points. Phil McCracken’s Heart of Midlothian drew 1-1 with Walsall (Heskey, Rooney swapping punches in the first half), and Atletico Madrid’s 1-0 at Rangers fell just short of what was needed to stay ahead of Hearts. The top four are now on 47, 43, 42, and 42. Walsall – yes, Walsall – sit sixth on 38 with four wins from their last five, and have not finished making a nuisance of themselves.

💡 The fixture computer has done Vienna no favours in Week 27: West Ham at home. West Ham, with the highest-rated squad in the league, have quietly hit form – two wins from three. Meanwhile, Southend visit Hearts in what is rapidly becoming the match of the season. If Vienna slip and Southend win, this is a one-point race.

At the other end, Real Madrid’s campaign has reached its natural conclusion. The 2-0 home win over Porto – goals from Piero and Hassler – was a rare moment of cheer, but 21 points and a goal difference of -13 with four games left makes the mathematics uncomfortable. Bayer Leverkusen on 24 are not safe either, though they are clear enough of Madrid to start breathing more easily. Norwich City and Rangers, both on 29, have pulled well clear of the drop zone and can afford to look upward rather than down.

⚠️ Real Madrid’s James J E Harman posted a plaintive message on the Notice Board this week: “Looks like we are as good as down. Really struggling to work out what I am doing wrong.” That kind of honesty is rare and worth acknowledging – it’s been a tough season, and the squad rating of 590 against a divisional average that runs considerably higher tells its own story.

💙 Division 2 – The Basement Is Getting Crowded

Birmingham City’s title was already confirmed and this week’s 3-0 over Lazio – Wimmer, then Kelly twice – was merely a statement of intent ahead of next season. Leigh Bailey’s side are seven points clear of Middlesbrough with four games remaining and have been the most consistent team in Division 2 all season. That part of the story is settled. The rest of Division 2 is anything but.

⚠️ David Hopkins’ Manchester United are in genuine freefall. Fifteen points, five losses from their last five, and a goal difference that has reached -25. Inter Milan beat them 2-0 this week – Maradona and Blissett both on the scoresheet – and at the other end of the ground the crowd of 11,700 was the second-lowest in Division 2 this season. Liverpool on 24 are three points above the drop zone after a dramatic 2-1 win over Tottenham, Kane and Díaz scoring in the last ten minutes to turn it around after Højlund’s opener. Stuart Merry’s side have found something – three wins from their last five, after going eleven games without one. Bayern Munich on 23 are in equal danger and have now lost every single one of their last five away matches.

Middlesbrough’s form run is bordering on extraordinary. Five wins from five in the last five weeks – the only side in Division 2 to achieve a perfect recent run – and their goal difference has gone from respectable to formidable. Ansó added to his season tally this week with a brace at home against Millwall (11 and 71 minutes), and Greg C’s side are now five points behind Birmingham with a better recent record than anyone. Fulham, on 47, have also gone five from five but quietly – Stuart Alexander’s side winning 1-0 at Portsmouth this week, Soares with the only goal on 35 minutes.

❤️ Division 3 – Charlton’s Charge and the Bristol Puzzle

Bristol Rovers have not lost away from home all season. Twenty-six games played, twelve away fixtures, zero defeats on the road. Phil McCracken has built something methodical and relentless at the Memorial Stadium, and their 1-0 win over Chelsea this week – Miglierina on 40 – means they lead the division by five points. The title is not mathematically theirs yet, but it is beginning to look like a matter of paperwork.

The more interesting story right now is below Bristol Rovers. Charlton Athletic have been on a run that has quietly turned the second-place battle on its head. Wayne McCauley’s side won 2-1 at Wolves this week – Mendonca scoring on 16 and Gynn putting them clear on 50, Asllani pulling one back but too late – to make it four wins and a draw from their last five. That five-game spell has produced 13 points at 2.60 per game, the best form of any Division 3 side, and has lifted them above Aberdeen on goal difference. The two sides are now on 51 and 49, separated by two points and a shared goal difference of +17. Their head-to-head this season could yet decide who finishes second.

🔍 The Wolverhampton Wanderers defeat is worth examining. Wolves had the highest away form PPG in Division 3 heading into this fixture – 2.40 per game on the road. Charlton went to Molineux as underdogs and won by coming from behind with the second goal. It’s the kind of away win that builds belief. The ratings were stark too: Wolves 497, Charlton 638. That disparity tells you something about the momentum running in entirely different directions.

Crystal Palace, still without a manager, drew their way to a 1-1 at Napoli – Berbatov with a fine equaliser for the visitors, Milovanović responding. They sit 16th on 17 points, and the gap to safety is now ten points with four games left. The dugout at Selhurst Park has been empty all season and it shows in the results.

💛 Division 4 – Dortmund Surge, Forest Lose (But Who Cares)

Cardiff City remain four games from completing a Division 4 title, Nonno Coia’s side grinding out a 1-0 win over Leeds United – Bongonda on 28 – to maintain their six-point cushion. But the table has shifted beneath them. Borussia Dortmund’s 3-2 win over Manchester City – Benachour, Martinez, and Martín in a frantic second half – has lifted Jody Downey’s side level with Newcastle United on 44 points, both leapfrogging AC Milan on goal difference to take third and fourth. Five clubs are covered by eleven points with four games to play, and the scrap for second through sixth is genuinely open.

🔍 Dortmund’s recent form puts them in fascinating territory. Their 5-game run reads: L-L-D-L-W, which doesn’t look like much. But that win came when it mattered – three goals in a second-half blitz against Manchester City, including Martín’s winner on 83 minutes. Before that run they were sitting fifth. They’ve climbed two places without the form to justify it, purely on this week’s result. Their season-long away record (3 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses) is the weakest of any top-six side. One slip and they drop back.

And then there is Nottingham Forest. Chris Houldey’s side lost 1-3 to Grimsby Town this week – Crujera twice and Pérez – which leaves them 14th in the division on 23 points. Their league form is a disaster. Their cup form is extraordinary. A week after confirming their League Cup Final place, they are now also through to the Supremos Cup semi-final, where they face Norwich City. A Division 4 side with 23 league points, one game from two cup finals. The season has produced some peculiar stories. This is the strangest.

🏆 Supremos Cup – Semi-Finals Set for Week 27

The Supremos Cup semi-finals are confirmed for Week 27, with two fascinating ties on the card. Celtic host Charlton Athletic, with the bookmakers making Charlton clear favourites at 4/7 against Celtic’s 6/4. Nottingham Forest face Norwich City, with Norwich strong 1/3 favourites against the Division 4 side at 11/4. The prize for losing semi-finalists is £440,000, with the winner taking £1,100,000. Forest’s run – from 14th in Division 4 to this stage – is the kind of thing the competition exists to produce.

🗞️ Around the League

The score draw pool had two winners this week. Sean Docherty of Southend United and El_Diablo of Tottenham Hotspur each correctly identified seven score draws and take home £400,000 apiece. There were seven score draws in total across the 32 league fixtures, which is a high return – the Division 4 games in particular seemed determined to serve up level scorelines.

Two new managers are welcomed to the European Elites this week. John Forster takes charge at Austria Vienna, picking up a side sitting eighth in Division 4 on 36 points. Thomas Scott has arrived at Crystal Palace – the timing could not be more pressing, with Palace 16th in Division 3 and ten points from safety with four games left. There is very little margin for error, but at least there is now someone in the dugout.

The televised fixtures this week were Cambridge United vs Athletic Bilbao in Division 1 (ending 2-2 in a game that kept both sides’ calculations alive), Inter Milan vs Manchester United in Division 2 (a one-sided 2-0 that deepened United’s crisis), Chelsea vs Bristol Rovers in Division 3 (a tight 1-0 to the visitors), and AC Milan vs Austria Vienna in Division 4 (a 2-2 draw with goals at both ends).

On the Gossip Sheet, Sporting Lisbon continue to pull the most loyal away support in the division, averaging 16,696 travelling fans. Their League Cup Final appearance next month will no doubt add to that. At the other end of the attendance table, Manchester United’s away following of 7,743 is the lowest average in the division – the results have not given supporters much reason to travel. Across the whole league, West Ham sit atop the best squad rankings despite sitting eighth in Division 1 – one of the more glaring disconnects between talent and position in the league this season.

The Police Report noted crowd trouble at the Cardiff City vs Walsall friendly: 56 arrests, four officers injured and £76,082 of stadium damage. That one will make uncomfortable reading in both boardrooms.